Closed captions transcript:

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Regulating international trade in conventional
weapons the treaty was entered into

00:00:04
force in two thousand and fourteen and
ninety six countries have ratified it and

00:00:09
ministration officials point out that
seventeen of the twenty top twenty five

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exploiters of arms have not
signed it this is V.O.A.

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News

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a powerful Cyclon the second to strike
Mozambique in just six weeks ripped off roofs

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and killed at least three people Friday
as the United Nations warned of massive

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flooding cycle own Keith has approached
Mozambique with maximum sustained winds of

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two hundred twenty kilometers per hour
United Nations Office for the Coordination

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of Humanitarian Affairs spokesperson yens
lurk there will be an urgent need for

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shelter team water sanitation and hygiene
kits food and non-food items pollen

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generation and telecommunications
equipment. Sites from Kenneth may require

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a major new for many children operation at
the same time that the ongoing cycle eat

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I response talking to three million people
in three countries remain pretty on the

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funding over the next ten days the storm
is expected to dump twice as much rain as

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I can on each day did last month which
killed more than six hundred people

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Venezuelan opposition leader Juan why Dole
rallied thousands in the coastal city of

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Maracana on Friday receiving

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a rock star's welcome as he headed
out across the country to push for

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a massive May Day march against President
Nicolas Maduro. Yannick head of he

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said that people had

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a power and that they will exercise it to
end the current situation once and for.

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Venezuelans are already suffering from
hyperinflation and widespread shortages of

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food and medicine and I have seen chronic
power outages in vast swaths of the

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territory in recent months. New research
shows how the armed wing of Palestinian

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militant group Hamas is using bitcoin
to raise and move money researchers at

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London's firm. Elliptic says they have
traced how the organization's armed wing is

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using electronic money to raise funds were
it is reporter Tom Wilson of the moment

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the sums involved are relatively small.
The research chauvinist ation thinks that

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only seven thousand dollars so far has
been raised in this way but it's really

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example of how a group prescribed by many
major old mate major government says

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a terrorist organization has been looking
to use critical mass is to raise money

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Hamas was designated as a terrorist
organization by the U.S. And the E.U.

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Mexico has expressed concern to the United
States government about lengthy delays

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at ports of entry along their shared
border that are hurting companies in both

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countries Mexico's Foreign
Affairs Ministry said in

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a statement Friday that
impacts to Mexican and U.S.

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Businesses had been felt in April due
to delays in customs inspections at the

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border in the first two months of
twenty nineteen Mexico became the U.S.

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Is number one trading partner voters in
Spain go to the polls on Sunday in national

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elections in which no one
party is expected to win

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a majority in parliament
I'm Steve Miller V.O.A.

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News.

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From Washington to V.O.A.

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Presents issues in the news. Welcome to
issues in the news on the panel this week

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Steve Goldstein Washington bureau chief
for Market Watch and the hall to see

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foreign affairs correspondent for
Politico our moderator is C.B.S.

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Radio contributor Michael will. Welcome
everyone here are the issues the fallout

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continues from the Easter Sunday bombings
in Sri Lanka as officials continue to

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count the dead and wounded and seek
suspects in the attacks who are believed to

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still be at large in the wake of the
recently released Miller report Democrats in

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the House of Representatives have demanded
records and testimony from the Trump

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administration both of which President
Donald Trump has so far refused to provide.

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Former President Joe Biden officially
entered the crowded twenty twenty

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presidential race as the front runner in
most polls Russian President Vladimir

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Putin and North Korean leader
Kim Jong un met to discuss

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a range of issues including the
ongoing negotiations between the U.S.

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And North Korea on
denuclearization and U.S.

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President Donald Trump has decided to end
exemptions from sanctions for countries

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still buying oil from Iran panelists a
lot to discuss let's start with the U.S.

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Remote controlled bombings the death
toll I hear has been revised downward

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a grim reason for that is that there were
so many serious injuries that it was hard

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to determine the number of bodies there so
the count has been revised down but it's

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still in the hundreds fifty eight was the
last count I saw under arrest in the

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investigation that has an ever widening
circle start with you where do we stand now

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in terms of the last thing you've heard
as far as the death count and where the

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investigation stands the last thing I heard
was roughly around two hundred fifty

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dead what's really tragic in so many of
these cases is you often never really know

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how many people have died but what's
also happening is that there's

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a lot of concern about reprisals the Muslim
community in Sri Lanka which really in

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the past hasn't been known for this
sort of extremism or having the sort of

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communal tensions is now really worried
that they're going to be targeted and you

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know the government has arrested

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a bunch of people but I don't really get
the sense that their investigation is very

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targeted or necessarily very on point what
you often see after the sorts of attacks

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is the governments go out and they just
arrest anybody they see on the street and

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so we don't really know yet how close
they are getting any sort of justice so

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really casting a wide net Steve there were

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a number of organizations that
claimed responsibility for this

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a couple of local terrorist organizations
if you will also ISIS has claimed

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responsibility the local
organizations and it's

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a little bit different than the Civil War
type of violence that we saw it does not

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evolve in Tamil Tigers or anything like
that and you have. ISIS were supposedly on

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the run and basically
without a heart be talk

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a little bit about the organizations that
are involved in this I think as you point

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out that it's still not clear who carried
out and I think that's actually another

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kind of weird celerity of terrorist attacks
is you don't always know who committed

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it yes you just want to build

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a new multiple claims of responsibility
and it's up to you know investigators to

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really tie together I think one very clear
issue with is that they were not really

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paying attention and you could tell
that by the fact that this top security

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officials were immediately fired and you
had India who said that they had concerns

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that this was something like this
was about to happen and gave

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a very specific warning which was not one
indeed it were ignored that were ignored

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I think one other thing about kind of
terrorism more generally is that they try to

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look for the weak spots the weak links the
people who are not paying attention I

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think as terrorism becomes

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a worldwide phenomenon I mean it already
is but they're increasingly you see

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pockets of the world that perhaps maybe
you want necessarily expect but just sort

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of the easiest place to cause the maximum
damage and I think that's what happened

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here though we have an ongoing
investigation and we have

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a country that's still on high
alert as it's suspected that

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a number of the perpetrators are still
still at large is there any sign that this

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is coming to any type of resolution in
terms of at least investigation in the

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search I think the government would

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a stronger would like you to think that
they keep arresting people but I think it

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will be quite

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a while before we know for sure who is
behind this who helped plan who inspired

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it I mean sometimes ISIS claims
responsibility for attacks that they say they

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inspired me so this is the type of thing
that I think it's going to really drag on

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for years and frankly the justice systems
in Sunday's South Asian. Countries are

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not known for being very speedy anyway were
you struck by the number of people that

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seem to be involved in
this attack this wasn't

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a few bad actors It seems to be scores
of people involved in the planning of it

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including some people who are very high
up in society right there were some

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prominent family allegedly the
children some of the children

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a. Prominent merchant caught up in this
alleged to have been involved in this

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attack Yes I mean this is the type
of thing that does require quite

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a nation does require certain linkages but
then there's also you know people who

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may have unwittingly been involved they
didn't know that this was going to happen

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so the question is you know who is at the
core and what are they planning Max I

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have some experience in Sri Lanka I spent

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a lot of several years there when I was
living in Southeast Asia working with the

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central bank and I can tell
you that it's a it's just

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a tragic thing when you see that in such

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a beautiful country with such wonderful
people to have anything like this happen

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just it's heartbreaking on

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a personal level for me let's move to the
Trump administration Trump is defying

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Congress yet again and I think it's going
to be sort of the watchword of the rest

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of the his administration emboldened by his
perception of exoneration in the middle

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report the president trying to stake out

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a very defiant position against congressional
oversight some of the moves that

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we've seen are suing the House Oversight
Committee Chair allies are coming in

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response to becoming subpoenaing certain
records and individuals President Trump is

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barring or asking the current aides not
to testify in Congress including former

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White House counsel Don McGann you have
treasury secretary Steve Nugent who is

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refusing to hand over the tax returns of
Donald Trump this is sort of an out right

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just declaration of if not war certainly
battle against against congressional

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oversight as they are start with you
unprecedented in your view that this thing I

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think says look there's always been flare
ups between the White House and Congress

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and I think Republicans on the Hill would
would also remind people of the Obama.

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Ministration in certain instances also
kind of ignoring their wishes but the the

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scale of it the multiple areas of
resistance that they're basically they're

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shutting down basically every kind of
investigative cooperation with Congress

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simultaneously I think that's the part
that's unprecedented that you have all these

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things and also you had the two week from
the president saying that he would bring

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impeachment to the Supreme Court you know
where the Constitution imagines no role

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for that other than the participation of
the Supreme Court justice in the Senate

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trial so when you look at the scope of it
what you said is right that it's total

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war from the White House it's Trump saying
no more he you can tell is very upset

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with the people who participated with
the mower inquiry in the report again

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seemingly in particular in because in
particular who I think even at the time

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people were wondering well why is McCann
spending so much time testifying and he

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absolutely gave up the goods but I think
the key point is that determination has

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been made in the White House no more
cooperation on this you can somehow pry it out

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of us and they're going to fight probably
as long as I can to do that and isn't it

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so interesting that they
don't want to claw for

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a on an investigation after they say they've
been exonerated so it's like if you're

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exonerated and you did nothing wrong and
you have nothing to hide and why are you

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not willing to cooperate well the president
says he's been the most open president

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with the most open it ministration in
history do the facts bear that out in your

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opinion no no just no. Well
they did provide answers the

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answers that the motorsport requested they
were our source in mind you know that

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Muller himself thought were not accurate
and the president wouldn't testify and the

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president did not testify to it and can I
just add one more thing please weigh in

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one sense Trump has been the most open
President history because through his

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Twitter feed we get

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a look into his thoughts his
emotions his sentiments so in that

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sense yes but in the
traditional sense and just

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a sense no certainly not right it seems to
me that the appointment of William Barr

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was kind of

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a pivot point in this administration when
we look at the initial lineup if you will

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of the Trump administration used

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a lot of people who were thought to
serve as sort of guard rails for the

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ministration to ward off the president
from his own maybe worst instincts and all

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those people from Jeff Sessions to you
name it they had basically an entire

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administration of service and that type of
role McMaster Cohen all sorts of people

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are all gone so I think you're looking at
the president's term presidency two point

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zero and this is basically the president
Unchained unguarded unfiltered and

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unrestrained and now you have an attorney
general who seems to be rather than

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a softening agent he's someone who is more
of an instigator and an enabler in the

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president's policies and his approach of
obstinance and obstruction against against

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congressional oversight I will add one
thing though Bart the statute about the

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special counsel statute does not require
the attorney general to turn over the

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report. If that was

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a choice now every other decision every
other response to Congress has been very

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much along the lines that trump approves
of he certainly the way Barr is suggesting

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that yes that they spied on him and using
those words the way he held that press

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conference ahead of the release of the
report so you have all of that but at the

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end of the day he did let for release the
most important thing that he was not

00:14:07
under legal obligation to do and
so whether that's Barr playing

00:14:12
a clever game or not I mean the pressure
of him if he had not released it I think

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would have been tremendous but there is

00:14:21
a case to be made that maybe Barr is
saying certain things but actually doing

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others that are more consistent with

00:14:28
a guardrail but he's trying to kind of
given where he thinks he could not cause

00:14:34
damage but allow the process to proceed
where he thinks it's important not I want

00:14:39
to frame something for you and then get
your response to it President Trump in his

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business career has made

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a tactic of being lied to just and
also ignoring the lawsuits of

00:14:52
others into

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a somewhat successful strategy for him
obviously we're talking about government not

00:14:58
business and as I look at my history
book I see that one of the articles of

00:15:02
impeachment against President Richard Nixon
was ignoring subpoenas that was one of

00:15:07
the articles of impeachment was

00:15:08
a reason for impeachment would you
accept the argument that the president's

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behavior post Miller might be just as

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a strong argument for impeachment as
anything that you find inside the report I

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think that he is not helping his case when
it comes to impeachment and I think that

00:15:28
the Democratic base in particular is looking
to their leadership in the house to

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move on in peace. And even though that
leadership placea has basically ruled it out

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to one Trump does the stuff Post report
to damage just more evidence that he is

00:15:44
going to still continue to try to obstruct
or do whatever but let's not forget

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something one of the fascinating things
that Trump has exposed about our governance

00:15:52
system is how much of it is based on norms
as opposed to laws and rules that can be

00:15:58
enforced you know people
just never thought that

00:16:01
a president would do this to Congress
Congress thought it was more powerful than

00:16:06
apparently it's turning out to be I mean
one of the most fascinating things we're

00:16:09
seeing is how weak Congress actually really
is and this is this is just something

00:16:15
that you know going forward
we're going to have to see

00:16:17
a future administrations and future Congresses
try to rectify to put more of these

00:16:22
things as legal requirements that are in
forcible as opposed to just norms because

00:16:27
you expect people to behave in a
way that is consistent with U.S.

00:16:32
Tradition legislation rather than expectation
I like that great point but I take

00:16:35
a quick break and we'll come back with more
issues in the news. Issues and the news

00:16:40
is coming to you on the boys of America in
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00:16:50
News dot com While you're there check out
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00:16:55
would say and encounter also visit us on
Facebook then like us at current affairs

00:17:00
with Carol Castillo Now back to our panel
Steve Goldstein Washington bureau chief

00:17:06
for Market Watch and the hall to see
foreign affairs correspondent for Politico

00:17:11
a moderator is C.B.S.

00:17:13
Radio contributor Michael Williams.
Welcome back so leading in the polls

00:17:20
without the clearing Joe Biden has been in

00:17:23
a position for quite some time now he has
officially entered the twenty twenty

00:17:26
presidential race running I
believe for the third time as

00:17:29
a presidential candidate to receive
I was fascinated by how he made the

00:17:34
announcement not the method by video.
Number of candidates have done that but the

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message in the video I think was quite
different than virtually every other

00:17:42
candidate that was out there your thoughts
actually that's I was struck by that as

00:17:47
well and in fact I wrote

00:17:48
a story that I thought was very interesting
that he deliberately singled out Trump

00:17:54
and Trump's really tolerance I guess
for bigotry in his infamous comment in

00:17:59
Charlottesville and that does make him stand
out in the Democratic field and really

00:18:04
it's Biden's main selling point this is
third run for the presidency and he's not

00:18:10
really

00:18:10
a person known for policy ideals so he
doesn't bring that to the table and you

00:18:14
wouldn't necessarily go to

00:18:16
a seventy six year old former vice president
as someone you would think would be

00:18:20
the most able person to sit in the Oval
Office so his argument why you would vote

00:18:25
for him over anybody else is this idea
that number one that trance behavior is no

00:18:31
longer acceptable but that Biden is uniquely
able to combat that and so really that

00:18:38
is the message of his entire candidacy
because why else would you support him if

00:18:43
you want different policy ideas on the
left look you're going to go to Yale or

00:18:47
Elizabeth Warren or Bernie
Sanders if you want just

00:18:50
a modern leader I think maybe you would go
for Kemal Harris or people to judge but

00:18:57
if you actually want to win twenty twenty
lection is what you're Biden is saying

00:19:01
you need one to say why it is that you
don't like Donald Trump and find somebody

00:19:07
who can appeal to the people who previously
voted for Donald Trump and that's

00:19:11
Biden's whole proposition the whole when I
look at the white board for Joe Biden if

00:19:15
you had just one category for pros and
cons on the pros side you could have

00:19:20
experience and on the concert you have
experience elaborate on that point exactly I

00:19:25
mean he has

00:19:25
a long track record legislation comments
past presidential runs that people can

00:19:31
point to and say hey look
remember how you treated and eat

00:19:34
a hill hey look remember your. Comments
about criminal justice and the system there

00:19:39
and how that could resonate among
minorities now there are a lot of things

00:19:44
a Joe Biden has done that could come back
to haunt him and sure he might be the

00:19:48
front runner in some
polls right now but in

00:19:50
a sense if you're one of his Democratic
challengers you're thinking OK well the

00:19:54
only way he has to go is down right
so how do you make this like

00:19:57
a war of attrition on Joe Biden's poll
numbers like if I was Joe Biden I'd be like

00:20:01
All right so how am I going to prevent
myself from losing support even as I'm

00:20:07
trying to get gain more support it's like
the whole like you know if you're at the

00:20:11
top you're going to be the target for what
exactly how do the Democratic candidates

00:20:16
whether it's Joe Biden whether it's
pretty Sanders whether it's whether it's

00:20:19
someone else how do they prevent
setting themselves up as

00:20:21
a circular firing squad because if the
goal ultimately is to defeat the incumbent

00:20:26
president this is going to
be a long and apparently

00:20:30
a little bit vicious battle between these
candidates it absolutely will be I think

00:20:34
that's

00:20:34
a very salient point and I'm not sure he
can prevent that and that's the process if

00:20:41
you're going to have twenty some candidates
who of course what are they going to

00:20:44
say how much they like each other do you
remember the beginning of the two thousand

00:20:49
and eight campaigns there were a lot of
candidates there what we thought were

00:20:53
a lot of candidates ranging from Hillary
Clinton the sort of establishment choice

00:20:57
to in some way remember representative
dentist who sent it to was the Bernie

00:21:01
Sanders of his day sort of like the Boy
Wonder version but very much on the super

00:21:05
progressive and liberal side but they were
all very kind to each other until you

00:21:10
got to the final two which was Obama and
Hillary Clinton is that not possible for

00:21:16
them this time I think it's going to be
difficult for them not to do it I think

00:21:21
look the Aussie has

00:21:23
a look at the personalities involved so the
Bernie Sanders camp as we know is they

00:21:28
are very I think aggressive as almost

00:21:31
a cue from this home but they are fighters
and so is Elizabeth Warren. Kind of in

00:21:36
a different way the Biden camp has

00:21:39
a lot of former Obama
people you put them all in

00:21:42
a room they're willing to mix it up I don't
think there's going to be this sort of

00:21:47
gentle highminded to bait I think they're
going to really get into it I think

00:21:51
already we've seen some you've had to
listen with Warren for instance attacking

00:21:55
Biden support for credit card companies
you've had Bernie Sanders do

00:22:00
a fund raising message pointing out that
without using his name that Biden's first

00:22:06
fund raising was at the home of

00:22:07
a lobbyist so you have all these different
things that's going to continue for the

00:22:12
next year and

00:22:13
a half but I don't think you're going to
see the type of thing you saw with the

00:22:17
Republicans this last time around in two
thousand and sixteen I don't think you're

00:22:21
going to see any of the Democratic candidates
giving one another nasty nicknames I

00:22:28
think if they are going to have their it's
probably going to be less personal and

00:22:33
more about policy and you know things like
fundraising and lobbying and things like

00:22:38
that well to bring the discussion full
circle I thought that the opening salvo from

00:22:45
Joe Biden in his video was

00:22:47
a an entreaty to African-American voters
and you cannot win the Democratic

00:22:52
nomination without African American
voters and as it stands Bernie Sanders is

00:22:56
running about fifty percent in the polls
and that's African-American vote with

00:23:00
African-American candidates who are running
running far far far behind him so I

00:23:05
think he knows he may not know where the
party is going but I think he knows

00:23:08
exactly where it is now so it'll be interesting
to see which magnetic direction is

00:23:13
more powerful in the months coming up let's
move to the North Korean Russia summit

00:23:17
Russian President Vladimir Putin and the
North Korean leader Kim Jong un met to

00:23:21
discuss a range of issues including
the ongoing negotiations for

00:23:24
a denuclearization on the agenda for that
one. Oh you know my understanding is that

00:23:30
there was not much of substance that came
out of it but that essentially this was

00:23:34
a chance for Putin. To show that he is
relevant and for Kim to show that even

00:23:41
though President Trump claims that he and
Cameron love that Kim has other suitors

00:23:46
as well but you know it's just one of those
instances where you see the Russians

00:23:50
showing up whenever they see the Americans
doing something MAJOR the Russians show

00:23:54
up somewhere and they're like hey we have

00:23:56
a role we can do something too but as far
as we know there's nothing that they're

00:24:00
offering the north yet that could really
make them an alternative power especially

00:24:06
given that the U.S.

00:24:07
Has thousands of troops in South Korea and
that's what the North Koreans are really

00:24:10
worried about Steve I love the love
triangle analogy I was thinking about this

00:24:17
thing more about triangular ization in terms
of Henry Kissinger and Lattimer Putin

00:24:22
positioning himself as the new Henry
Kissinger and the enemy of my enemy is my

00:24:26
friend yours are really it
speaks to is that the U.S.

00:24:31
And North Korea under Trump really
embarked on this new policy past.

00:24:37
And it stuck that's really the background
to the meeting that's why Kim was so

00:24:44
willing to meet. And of
course Putin sees it as

00:24:48
a good way again to put project Russian's
foreign policy which basically is not to

00:24:53
be the United States one interesting thing
I thought that Putin said that if North

00:24:59
Korea denuclearize that there would have
to be some sort of international defense

00:25:03
guarantees which is probably
kind of both correct but also

00:25:10
a bit of a move I think in

00:25:12
a positive direction if they really believe
that but really I think this is Kim

00:25:17
wanting to get the U.S.

00:25:19
Talks back on track I'm not sure that
he's willing to make the concessions that

00:25:24
would be necessary to do that I think Kim's
goal is to get rid of the sanctions and

00:25:30
keep the nuclear program I mean that's
like good luck with that but that's that's

00:25:35
what he's trying to do and we'll see how
far it gets in the rule we'll finish with

00:25:40
us ending sanctions against five countries
who import Iranian oil the White House

00:25:45
said that waivers for China India Japan
South Korea and Turkey would expire in May

00:25:50
after which they could face U.S.

00:25:51
Sanctions themselves Stephen stay with you
Yeah well the prices have climbed there

00:25:57
about over seventy dollars

00:25:59
a barrel the international benchmark and
yet it's an important move globally now

00:26:04
people do expect if China and India aren't
getting their oil from Iran that they'll

00:26:11
go that Saudi Arabia will be able to pump
out more and that's why maybe prices

00:26:17
haven't you know skyrocketed
but it it certainly is

00:26:19
a significant step and you know way it
sort of reduces if there are some other

00:26:26
problems it reduces the available spare
capacity in the system so I think it's sort

00:26:33
of people of handle that find other things
in Iran where they are very. They have

00:26:38
threatened the key waterway the Strait
of Hormuz Yes Thank you it's just.

00:26:45
About without coffee I can come. But you
know so there's the potential that maybe

00:26:51
not that Iran would block Saudi output
altogether they don't have that capability

00:26:56
but could they disrupt it can they delay
it yet they do have the knowledge to be

00:26:59
the final word on this you
know this is definitely

00:27:02
a move against Iran I mean the administration
wants to shut off all revenue sources

00:27:05
to the Iranian regime but it's also
a move against other countries in

00:27:10
a way it's basically telling other countries
if you do business with Iran your are

00:27:14
going to get face sanctions from the U.S.

00:27:17
And you know some countries are going to
be scared about that but then there's

00:27:19
other countries that don't take kindly to
that sort of bullying China for instance

00:27:23
you know right now they're basically saying
you know we don't appreciate you guys

00:27:26
treating at this Asus way and we're going
to make our own foreign policy in our own

00:27:30
economic policy in our in our own way so
it's I think it really remains to be seen

00:27:34
whether major countries like China and
India actually do follow the U.S.

00:27:39
Demands and stop their oil imports from
Iran and if they don't that gives Iran

00:27:43
a lifeline that it hopes that will sustain
it at least through one term of the

00:27:47
trumpet ministration and the Iranians
are definitely hoping that there isn't

00:27:51
a second term our thanks to Steve Goldstein
Washington bureau chief for Market

00:27:54
Watch and the whole to see foreign affairs
correspondent for Politico this program

00:27:59
is produced by Patrice Martin our engineer
is Justin Thwaites And I'm Michael

00:28:03
Williams thanks for listening.

00:28:19
From V.O.A.

00:28:20
Press Conference USA here's your
host Carol Kashmir. Welcome

00:28:27
to Press Conference USA on The Voice of
America joining me on the program is beg

00:28:33
air souce video journalist in V.O.A.

00:28:36
As Turkish service our topic on this edition
of the program the future of Syria our

00:28:41
special guest Andrew Tabler

00:28:44
a fellow in the Program on Arab Politics
at the Washington Institute for Near East

00:28:49
Policy that's

00:28:50
a thank tank here in Washington it's
been eight years since the Arab Spring

00:28:54
inspired the peaceful democratic uprising
in Syria which tragically morphed into

00:28:59
a civil conflict and proxy war in two
thousand and eleven Syrian dictator Bashar al

00:29:04
Assad violently crackdown on protesters
refusing to make any reasonable concessions

00:29:10
to his iron fisted rule no longer able to
Brook Assad's cruelty and defiance toward

00:29:15
his people thousands of soldiers defected
they called themselves the Free Syria

00:29:20
Army or F.S.A.

00:29:22
They protected and collaborated with
the civilian opposition the F.S.A.

00:29:26
Valiantly fought Assad his backers Iran
and Russia and various Shia militias

00:29:31
particularly Hezbollah

00:29:33
a client of Iran they also fought extremist
Sunni Islamist militants flush with

00:29:38
foreign money from sympathetic individuals
and governments however in the crucial

00:29:43
months in which support to the F.S.A. Could
have helped the F.S.A. Coalesce U.S.

00:29:47
President Barack Obama revealed not
only his strong bias against military

00:29:52
intervention or serious proxy backing for
the rebels but also skepticism about the

00:29:57
Syrian opposition itself

00:29:59
a number of factors helped shape the
trajectory of the conflict the U.S.

00:30:04
Moved to reject decisive military
intervention against the Assad regime in the

00:30:09
early days of the rebellion along with
its on willingness to attack the regime

00:30:13
after the Syrian military used sarin gas
on hundreds of civilians. In two thousand

00:30:18
and thirteen come to mind instead
the Obama administration opted for

00:30:23
a Russian deal to dismantle Syria's chemical
weapons arsenal which ultimately did

00:30:28
not stop the Syrian military from using
chemical weapons these decisions along with

00:30:33
Obama's relentless pursuit of

00:30:34
a nuclear deal with Iran all contributed
to shaping the current political landscape

00:30:40
today notwithstanding the territorial
defeat of ISIS it remains

00:30:43
a potent insurgency thanks to crucial
support from Russia which intervened in two

00:30:48
thousand and fifteen with forces and
anti-aircraft systems as well as from Iran the

00:30:53
regime of Bashar al Assad now controls
approximately sixty percent of the country's

00:30:58
territory well we'll talk with Andrew
Tabler one of the foremost experts on Syria

00:31:03
about the future of Syria as we take stock
of how the conflict of volved it has

00:31:08
killed wounded or displaced millions of
Syrians and generated the worst refugee

00:31:13
crisis since World War two in his post at
the Washington Institute for Near East

00:31:18
Policy Andrew focuses on Syria and U.S.

00:31:21
Policy in the Levant he achieved unparalleled
long term access to Bashar al Assad

00:31:26
Syria he's also the author of the book In
The Lion's Den An Eyewitness Account of

00:31:31
Washington's Battle with Syria and Andrew
Tabler joins us here at the V.O.A.

00:31:36
Broadcast Center in Washington welcome
to the program great to be here and I'm

00:31:40
delighted to welcome begin air so's she's

00:31:43
a video journalist in via ways Turkish
Service thank you for having me so Andrew

00:31:47
Tabler do you think that thanks to Russia
and Iran that Bashar Assad has indeed

00:31:53
prevailed in Syria what is the state of
play in the conflict today most media

00:31:59
accounts you read say that Bashar al Assad
has won the Syrian civil war it's more

00:32:03
accurate to say that the coalition of Russia
and Iran together with what's left of

00:32:08
the Syrian military has retaken about two
thirds of Syrian territory roughly in the

00:32:13
other parts of Syria in the northeastern
part the United States is aligned with.

00:32:18
P.Y. ID which is an
offshoot of the P.K. K.

00:32:20
The Kurdistan Workers Party an arch enemy
of Turkey in the effort to defeat ISIS

00:32:24
and into other parts of northwestern Syria
Turkey holds territory with its military

00:32:29
and backing Free Syrian Army units and
then last but not least we have part of

00:32:33
Syria which is under the control of the
rebels and particularly one group H.T.S.

00:32:38
An al-Qaeda affiliate so we have an outcome
in Syria which is an imposed military

00:32:43
victory involving the militaries of Iran
Russia on the side of Bashar al Assad the

00:32:47
United States and the people ID Turkey and
this outcome while it has brought about

00:32:52
a decrease in hostilities and actual death
tolls this outcome the international

00:32:57
intervention in Syria is unacceptable to
two neighboring countries one is Israel

00:33:01
which sees Iran's presence there as
antithetical and wants to launch efforts to get

00:33:05
rid of Iran militarily and of course the
other part is objectionable to Turkey

00:33:09
which finds the presence of the people ID
in northeastern Syria as essentially U.S.

00:33:14
Support for their arch enemies we
will get to Israel in Turkey in

00:33:18
a minute but before I turn to my colleague
I'd like you to look back I mentioned

00:33:21
some factors which I personally thought
contributed to the situation today mistakes

00:33:26
made under the Obama administration I'd
like you to also look back to see to what

00:33:31
extent had different decisions
been made if we would be in

00:33:34
a different place today discuss the concrete
junctures along the trajectory with

00:33:40
things may have gone differently
and to what extent then the U.S.

00:33:43
Administration under Obama and particularly
perhaps helped to spawn this terrible

00:33:48
situation about

00:33:49
a year ago I wrote an article about this
in The Atlantic called how Syria came to

00:33:53
this and what is important to point out is
that remember that this all started with

00:33:57
a little girl Phoebe in southwest
Syria for children scrawled on

00:34:01
a wall it's your turn Dr it was

00:34:03
a reference to what had happened to the
Mubarak regime in Egypt in the Ben Ali

00:34:07
regime in Tunisia and the four
children who scrawled this on

00:34:11
a wall where arrested by the Syrian security
services and tortured and they were

00:34:14
taken away from their parents this led
their parents to demand their. Turned when

00:34:18
that didn't happen they began to protest
and with every protest came increased

00:34:22
regime repression with every use of live
fire came more deaths with every death

00:34:27
came at funeral and another opportunity
to protest and that use of violence in

00:34:32
response to these protests spread throughout
the country and put Syria on fire

00:34:36
these kinds of situations are challenging
for any country including superpowers to

00:34:40
speak like the United States which has
interests all over the world and we have to

00:34:44
point out that President Barack Obama was
elected in many ways to get us out of

00:34:48
wars in the Middle East in particular was
elected because of America's involvement

00:34:53
in the Iraq war and how that didn't go
according to plan so early on it was clear

00:34:57
that the protests were going to
continue and many people in the U.S.

00:35:01
Government believed that it was inevitable
that the Assad regime would fall by the

00:35:05
end of two thousand and
eleven and there was

00:35:07
a debate inside of the administration the
difference of course between the Assad

00:35:11
regime in Syria and the Mubarak regime
in Egypt for example is that the Mubarak

00:35:16
regime is

00:35:16
a majority and regime comes from the majority
sect in the country Sunni Muslims in

00:35:22
Syria it's a client list take a
minority dominated regime it's

00:35:25
a particular kind of regime like Saddam
Hussein's regime in Iraq and they are

00:35:29
gathered around in the case of Syria
Alawite at their core but they have other

00:35:33
minorities Christians Druze others around
them and this minority serves as the core

00:35:38
of the regime and it is galvanized against
the kind of splits that you saw in the

00:35:43
military in Egypt when they instead of
turning their guns on the Egyptian people

00:35:47
they instead removed Mubarak from power
in Syria there wasn't anything like this

00:35:52
because the officer corps they felt common
cause with Bashar al Assad what happened

00:35:57
is that Bashar al Assad did not fall on his
own accord President Obama position the

00:36:01
United States to be on the right side of
history as he said he had Hillary Clinton

00:36:05
who was then secretary of state read from
the front steps of the State Department

00:36:09
that President Assad must quote step aside
and so we had to decide in terms of in

00:36:15
policy circles What was the best
course of action and. Series of U.N.

00:36:19
Process he's failed to bring about

00:36:20
a settlement and so by the summer of
two thousand and twelve Syria is in an

00:36:23
outright state of rebellion its regime is
rapidly losing territory and in each part

00:36:28
of Syrian territory whether it's in the
regime areas in the opposition areas or in

00:36:32
the Kurdish areas U.S.

00:36:33
Designated terrorist organizations are
not only present but they're becoming

00:36:37
ascendant series in full meltdown the
security cabinet put before President Obama

00:36:42
a plan to arm and organize
the Syrian opposition it was

00:36:46
a unanimous decision to back the plan I
believe it was presented by David Petraeus

00:36:50
the head of the CIA as well as others and
President Obama vetoed that plan yes

00:36:55
Hellary Clinton also backed that and that's
correct he vetoed that plan in vetoing

00:36:59
that plan and is quite well known in
Syria circles he went against his entire

00:37:03
security cabinet but there was

00:37:04
a very important and syllabary decision
which would prove to be disastrous for the

00:37:08
United States and that is instead of
organizing and arming the opposition or at

00:37:13
least organizing them or trying to organize
them it allowed us Gulf allies to do so

00:37:19
in our stead now the reason why this
is a problematic is that the U.S.

00:37:22
Gulf allies along with allies in the
region look at the Syrian opposition

00:37:25
differently than we do and they saw
particularly the role of Solace what became

00:37:29
Salafist this as an effective fighting force
against Bashar al Assad but these were

00:37:35
forces that we were unwilling of course to
back and this then strengthened Salafist

00:37:39
and salafist hottest units inside the Syrian
rebels and led to the growth and Isis

00:37:45
and this would end up being a
disastrous decision that was

00:37:48
a very important juncture to
say the least but there were

00:37:50
a lot of others the red line incident of
twenty thirteen Barack Obama in the summer

00:37:54
of twenty twelve in announcing he didn't
want to back the Syrian rebels makes

00:37:58
a strange move to go out and publicly say
that the use of chemical weapons would

00:38:01
change his calculus in Syria would
be a red line now this raise

00:38:04
a lot of eyebrows because if you don't
want to become militarily involved you

00:38:07
probably don't want to lay down

00:38:08
a red line on their use and the reason why
he was doing that is the Syrian regime

00:38:12
which had then one of the largest
stockpiles of sarin in the world was moving

00:38:15
around and mixing these materials
Bashar said. Began using them in lower

00:38:19
concentrations on his own people throughout
the fall of two thousand and twelve and

00:38:22
then by the spring of twenty thirteen
chemical weapons use in Syria is prevalent

00:38:26
there's actually evidence of it and the
Obama administration publicly announced as

00:38:31
I believe by it was in March it was June
of twenty thirteen that the red line had

00:38:35
been crossed but it was very clear that
President Obama did not feel that he wanted

00:38:39
to become involved in Syria because he did
nothing to prepare the American public

00:38:42
nor anyone else that this red line was going
to be enforced and so what happened is

00:38:46
that Bashar al Assad and his regime which
read our signals very well that listen to

00:38:50
all broadcasts like this one they looked
at this and they said Well Obama's not

00:38:55
going to intervene and enforce the redline
so began increasing the concentrations

00:38:59
the use of sarin And finally this happened
in the Hotel Tac in August of twenty

00:39:04
thirteen and that led to mass casualties
and that the images of those mash

00:39:08
casualties suddenly caused the United
States to bring warships off the coast of

00:39:13
Syria and the U.S.

00:39:14
Was dragged into trying to enforce this
red line as you mentioned the U.S.

00:39:17
Did not end up doing that
instead they opted for

00:39:20
a plan to rid Syria of its chemical weapons
stockpiles supposedly and it did the

00:39:25
lion's share of Syrian chemical weapons in
particular hair and now it's the country

00:39:30
however the regime kept

00:39:32
a certain part of their capabilities and
then after Syria was rid of these weapons

00:39:36
began using them again and actually chemical
weapons use in Syria went up and then

00:39:40
instead not only involved there and but
involved chlorine and this was another

00:39:44
major turning point in the
Syrian war and also I think set

00:39:48
a really damaging message to U.S.

00:39:51
Allies around the world and that is whether
you're Japan or South Korea and so on

00:39:55
what America come to your rescue when
push came to shove this was very

00:39:59
controversial so I think that was another
major event the other major turning point

00:40:03
was then the outbreak of ISIS because after
this the political process collapses

00:40:08
the opposition is decimated and is alienated
from the United States so ISIS then

00:40:12
takes over huge amounts of
Syrian territory uses it as

00:40:15
a staging ground to take over parts of Iraq
and then I believe. A certain point had

00:40:19
as much territory as the size of Great
Britain or maybe England I think is England

00:40:22
or something roughly there of
and response to that the U.S.

00:40:25
Has to become more directly involved in
Syria but it has none of the political

00:40:29
backing that you would have from

00:40:30
a normal intervention in which the politics
is lined up first and the military

00:40:34
aspects are lined up second so in order
to fight the Islamic state the Obama

00:40:38
administration allied with
the ID of the P.K. K.

00:40:42
And the arch enemy of Turkey to go and
defeat the Islamic state which was very

00:40:46
effective by the way you can say what you
want about people idea and structure and

00:40:49
so on but they were very
effective with U.S.

00:40:51
Air power and fighting the Islamic State
in which to take our hats off to them

00:40:54
however it did not obscure the fact that
as they were defeating ISIS that the

00:40:58
a long standing animosity with Turkey
remained And so as the war has drawn down

00:41:04
against ISIS it has now caused increased
tensions with Turkey leading Turkey to

00:41:08
threaten to invade Syrian
territory and potentially set off

00:41:12
a different kind of conflict so maybe
moving from the Syrian civil war into the

00:41:16
Syrian war and this is what faces us at the
moment in the areas in which the United

00:41:20
States is operating and
the areas that the U.S.

00:41:23
Is not operating we have the largest
pocket of al Qaeda in the world in Italy

00:41:26
province and then we of course we have
huge swaths of Syrian territory which are

00:41:31
heavily influenced if not dominated by
Iranian Revolutionary Guard backed units and

00:41:36
other kinds of Shia militia
many of which are also U.S.

00:41:39
Doesn't it terrorist organizations and that
outcome in that part is unacceptable to

00:41:43
Israel which is bombing from Us weekly
basis inside of Syrian territory with the

00:41:47
permission of Russia who and the Israelis
have close relations with and have been

00:41:52
given sort of

00:41:53
a license to bomb inside of that territory
and I hope of degrading Iran's presence

00:41:57
in the country so while the Syrian civil
war is winding down so to speak the Syrian

00:42:02
war now threatens to expand and to break
out and that is very similar to the

00:42:07
Lebanese civil war which
was a civil war for

00:42:09
a relatively short amount of time and became
regionalized internationalized and we

00:42:13
thank you for reviewing the various factors
that have led us to where we are today

00:42:18
. Including decisions or lack of actions
by the US administration will get into

00:42:22
Trump administration in

00:42:24
a moment and the fact that in particular
the Obama administration once ISIS started

00:42:29
to grow they concentrated on ISIS and
pretty much ignored the depredations of the

00:42:35
Assad regime which prompted the uprising
to begin with so we really haven't solved

00:42:40
much we have

00:42:41
a short break you're listening to Press
Conference USA on The Voice of America our

00:42:45
guest is Andrew Tabler He's

00:42:47
a fellow in the Program on Arab Politics
at the Washington Institute for Near East

00:42:51
Policy I'm Carol Castiel along
with beggin air souce she's

00:42:55
a video journalist in VO ways Turkish
service and here's a big shout out to

00:42:59
a loyal Facebook fan site. Unsorry from
Kabul Afghanistan if you want to hear your

00:43:06
name on the air please send an
e-mail to encounter at V.O.A.

00:43:09
News dot com for more questions let me now
turn to my colleague begin air source So

00:43:15
two questions regarding the United States
partnering with P Y D Y P G in Syria

00:43:21
Turkey from the very beginning was telling
us OK let's do this operation together

00:43:26
against ISIS whereas the United States
decided to go and partner with the idea in

00:43:33
Syria what was the reason behind the
Obama administration's taking by P.G.

00:43:40
a Partner in Syria and the second question
would be on Turkey and the United States

00:43:44
are currently working on the creation of

00:43:47
a safe zone inside Syria
Turkey wants to have

00:43:51
a military presence there whereas why
Peachey does not want to see any Turkish

00:43:55
troops in that safe zone and reportedly
Washington is trying to talk the Syrian

00:44:01
Kurds into that So do you think that the
two sides will find common ground in terms

00:44:07
of the creation of the safe
zone the reason why the U.S.

00:44:09
Partnered with the P Y D where it's kind
of an alphabet soup but this offshoot of

00:44:13
the P.K.

00:44:13
I think was multifaceted first of all
Turkey like other regional allies require.

00:44:18
The United States commit to the overthrow
of the Assad regime as part of that

00:44:22
effort to support Free Syrian Army units
and to bring about that kind of change

00:44:26
President Obama did not believe that the
Free Syrian Army had the capabilities to

00:44:29
overthrow the Assad regime and they were
also horribly divided to be fair they did

00:44:34
not do themselves any favors and Mandela
figures so to speak to not emerge from

00:44:38
that conflict instead we had
multiple warlords So that was

00:44:41
a major problem there was another problem
in that Turkey during the period in

00:44:45
particular when the US allowed Gulf allies
to supply units inside of Syria Turkey

00:44:51
used an open borders policy it was an
unofficial one allowed men and materiel to

00:44:57
flow to all these groups in Syria because
of course they were trying to overthrow

00:45:00
the Assad regime the problem is that
intermixed with members of the Free Syrian

00:45:04
Army were Salis and sometimes us and they
were transiting through Turkey and there

00:45:09
was increased U.S. Intelligence
of that so there was

00:45:11
a mistrust of confusion over Turkey's
position Turkey however I think was looking

00:45:17
at the situation that well we're trying to
overthrow the Assad regime first because

00:45:20
as you pointed out the conflict started
with President Assad and also President

00:45:25
Assad's forces are responsible for the
lion's share of deaths inside of the country

00:45:29
so Turkey was behaving differently than
our other allies Jordan which had sealed

00:45:33
their border and had really dropped out
support to the opposition in an effort to

00:45:37
keep Salafist and salafist goddess at arms
like so in the midst of this the United

00:45:42
States has to intervene eventually in
twenty fourteen inside of Syria they don't

00:45:46
want to commit to the overthrow of Assad
they observe Turkish behavior and don't

00:45:50
want to give it too much carte blanche in
terms of the fighting in Syria so instead

00:45:55
they turn to the to the why
P.G.P. Why do you Kurds the U.S.

00:45:57
Intervenes but in a very narrow way with

00:46:00
a group that has proven
very capable fighting is

00:46:03
a Marxist group amongst Kurds which is also
not very popular in many parts of Iraq

00:46:08
and elsewhere and also had this
relationship with the P K K which the Turks

00:46:12
regarded as hostile which is very
understandable so that I think led the U.S.

00:46:17
In that. Action and the U.S.

00:46:19
Started out the coalition to defeat ISIS
and over time as you write Turkey said we

00:46:24
should fight this together there was and I
think the military was involved in this

00:46:28
I was not involved in it myself but there
were investigations into the Free Syrian

00:46:33
Army and Turkmen forces which Turkey was
backing inside of Syria or were they were

00:46:37
training inside of Turkish territory to
move in but apparently all the observations

00:46:42
by the U.S.

00:46:43
Military of those forces that they were
not capable or ready to fight against the

00:46:47
Islamic State of now some of these forces
end up going into the two Turkish areas

00:46:52
what we find in the Syrian
conflict is that if you have

00:46:54
a local group and you have international
or foreign airpower or artillery and so on

00:47:00
or an air support you can take territory
and inside of Syria and hold it in Turkey

00:47:03
has done that with Free Syrian Army units
and also Turkmen units into different

00:47:07
areas inside of Syria that is how we got
into the current situation the issue of

00:47:12
the safe zone is essentially

00:47:13
a way to split the baby down the middle in
northeast Syria because Turkey wants the

00:47:19
why P.G.P.

00:47:20
Why the Kurds to be contained and the US
is pointing out that Turkey does not want

00:47:25
to commit the kind of forces to actually
take over all of the areas of eastern

00:47:28
Syria that ISIS once controlled and
is now controlled by the white B.G.

00:47:31
People ID So the idea is to create this
buffer zone and the idea from the U.S.

00:47:35
Standpoint I think is to create

00:47:36
a non militarized one but as you said it's
under negotiations and that this would

00:47:40
somehow keep Turkey and the people ID from
fighting each other and they would see

00:47:44
that it was an interest in not doing so
and this would then strengthen their

00:47:48
position these are the Assad regime and the
Iranians and the Russians who are very

00:47:51
eager to take care of these areas because
they're very resource rich and so the

00:47:55
effort by the United States now is to try
to get Turkey and the people ideally why

00:47:59
P.G.

00:48:00
To see the forest through the trees that
it's better not to attack each other but

00:48:03
instead to hold firm to not fight and to
block Assad regime the Iranians and the

00:48:08
Russians from taking eastern Syria Well we
don't have many more minutes left Andrew

00:48:13
but we want to take advantage of your deep
knowledge I guess the question is Where

00:48:17
do we go from here and.
How do you see the U.S.

00:48:19
Strategy in Syria under President Trump
because he is always saying that we have to

00:48:23
isolate Iran we must punish Iran we have
to defend our ally Israel and yet it seems

00:48:29
that his policy toward Syria that of
withdrawing troops perhaps not the two

00:48:34
thousand which he announced at the end of
twenty eighteen but still withdraw troops

00:48:39
that's almost contradictory to the ultimate
goal of trying to isolate Iran because

00:48:45
that only emboldens Iran one could say
in Syria and really it harms Israel

00:48:51
and our larger interests I think the big
differences of the trip ministration of

00:48:56
the Obama administration first of all
it comes in the enforcement of chemical

00:48:59
weapons redline it's been forced by U.S.

00:49:01
Missile strikes on two occasions in april
twenty seventeen and then again in April

00:49:05
twenty eighth seen about

00:49:06
a year ago and those strikes have led to
the decrease use of chemical weapons in

00:49:11
Syria and then since twenty eight thousand
we don't have any verified cases so in

00:49:15
that sense that's

00:49:16
a major difference and it showed that
much as Vladimir Putin I think showed in

00:49:20
terms of you can get involved in in a
conflict in Syria and not get sucked into

00:49:23
a larger war and I think that's

00:49:25
a major difference the other
area though is that there is now

00:49:29
a maximum pressure campaign against the
Islamic Republic of Iran which is designed

00:49:33
to choke off its economic lifeline
particularly through the sale of oil and that

00:49:37
effort is part of the
program to rip up the J.C.

00:49:41
The nuclear agreement but most importantly
and I think this is often overlooked

00:49:45
it's designed to roll back
the advance of I.R.G.C.

00:49:49
Backed groups throughout the
Middle East so this was

00:49:52
a major difference the Obama
administration regarded Iran as

00:49:56
a sort of natural balancing player in
the Middle East and that this balancing

00:50:01
allowing for Iranian interests in places
like Syria would allow the United States

00:50:05
to pull off shore and not become involved
in Syria and the desire to not be

00:50:09
involved more militarily in Syria is
bipartisan by the way it's both Democrats and

00:50:14
Republicans including those around
President Trump don't want to have U.S.

00:50:17
Troops in. Side of Syrian territory the
problem of course is that these countries

00:50:22
like Syria are broken
countries and the U.S.

00:50:25
Has to become directly involved in
fighting against ISIS and last autumn very

00:50:30
famously apparently
President Trump while on

00:50:32
a phone call at least according to reports
with President of Turkey president

00:50:37
everyone tried to put President Trump in

00:50:38
a hard Lama and economy said Mr President
why are you still fighting ISIS when

00:50:43
you've already defeated them and he said
you know what you're right you go and

00:50:46
fight them instead of course Turkey has
does not have the capability to go down the

00:50:49
Euphrates River Basin and take over all
that territory nor does it want to so the

00:50:53
U.S.

00:50:54
Has backed up from that position they're
going to keep some troops inside of Syria

00:50:58
and it's part of

00:50:59
a campaign through the use of sanctions and
the denial of those areas to the regime

00:51:02
in the Iranians to increase Iran's
expenditures inside of Syria and to get it to

00:51:07
bring the boys home so while we're trying
to do this with less resources less men

00:51:11
on the ground and women and less money of
our own the desire is to get the Iranians

00:51:16
to exit Syria and this is the overall goal
of the administration and they believe

00:51:21
that in doing so it will weaken President
Assad's hand and finally get him to make

00:51:25
concessions which as you pointed out he
has been unwilling to do so since the

00:51:28
beginning of the Syrian civil war

00:51:29
a quick answer do you think this policy
would be successful in persuading Bashar

00:51:34
Assad I mean Iran is such

00:51:36
a part of its existence we already see signs
that Iran is drawing down in parts of

00:51:41
Syria but we did not see it exit ing So
it's still too early to say I think also

00:51:45
it's very important to point out that the
maximum pressure campaign financially on

00:51:49
the Islamic Republic is having very deep
results what that will lead to in terms of

00:51:54
the strength and the I.R.G.C.

00:51:56
Both in Iran and in the region or

00:51:58
a weakening of its position in causing
it to bring people remains to be seen

00:52:01
because the G.C.

00:52:03
Has its own way of generating revenue
operates independently sometimes of the

00:52:06
Iranian government but for now the
maximum pressure campaign is designed to

00:52:10
rollback Iranian influence and so far so
good whether that's going to lead to the

00:52:15
reconstruction of Syria with

00:52:16
a balanced plan. The agreement which
refugees can return and people can feel safe

00:52:21
right now is

00:52:22
a long shot what about the fate of Bashar
al Assad what do you predict Bashar al

00:52:25
Assad I think is unlikely to leave his
post I do think we're going to have

00:52:29
elections in Syria at least by
twenty twenty one I've observed

00:52:32
a couple Syrian elections referendums
during my life and they're the most corrupt

00:52:37
fixed elections you could ever imagine so
I don't think that those kind of polls

00:52:40
are going to deliver anything else other
than Bashar al Assad victory at least in

00:52:44
the areas he controls and the
opposition areas there's

00:52:46
a big push by the United States to have
the opposition in those in exile vote and

00:52:50
that will likely show very strong support
for opposition elements and those that

00:52:54
oppose Bashar Assad and
we're likely to have

00:52:56
a political outcome in which the country
is split and before we close what about

00:53:00
ISIS this war has spawned ISIS and not
withstanding the defeat of the territory

00:53:06
which they control they're still

00:53:07
a powerful idiology and they're an insurgency
how do you see the implications for

00:53:12
ISIS as

00:53:12
a result of what's happened in Syria ISIS
now has moved from an outright proto

00:53:17
state an army into an insurgency and I
would imagine that's where it's going to

00:53:21
remain and that's what happens to these
groups we know this from the Iraq war while

00:53:25
they hold territory for periods of time
they go underground then carry out

00:53:29
insurgent attacks on various forces I
think it's reasonable to expect that ISIS

00:53:33
will continue to carry out these kind of
attacks and it will not be completely

00:53:36
defeated in the sense that we have become
accustomed to the understanding of defeat

00:53:41
but President Trump has said on

00:53:42
a couple of occasions that we have
militarily defeated ISIS whether there are

00:53:45
certain pockets of it here
there and everywhere is

00:53:48
a different matter the real question is do
those pockets of insurgency end up being

00:53:52
a durable safe haven in which terrorists
can organize and carry out attacks against

00:53:56
the United States and if that happens then
the United States will likely I think go

00:54:00
back into those areas and
we will be involved in

00:54:03
a much longer war against ISIS and groups
like that and meantime Iran and Russia

00:54:08
will continue to support Bashar al Assad
to Iran and Russia see eye to eye in Syria

00:54:14
do they work together they work together
more often than they work against each.

00:54:18
There however the Russians are much keener
to resurrect the Syrian state and to

00:54:22
prop up

00:54:23
a sudden to make the Syrian state Syrian
and not Iranian dominated the Iranians are

00:54:28
keen to keep Assad as he is and to set up

00:54:31
a parallel system their method of taking
over countries in the region is to set up

00:54:35
parallel units militia and so on as they
did in Lebanon with Lebanese Hezbollah and

00:54:39
then over time have some of those units
integrated then into the armed forces of

00:54:44
the country and that of course has happened
in Iraq and once you have that kind of

00:54:48
trajectory that Iran is able to project
its power into the future in the security

00:54:52
and political sense thank you I have

00:54:54
a question on loop in Syria and it's the
last rebel stronghold in the country and

00:55:00
Russia has been pressing Turkey to do
more in Lebanon Turkey is concerned of

00:55:05
a possible new wave of refugees from
the area so the regime might blown

00:55:11
a big operation in the area so what should
we expect in in the coming months I

00:55:18
expect that there you're going to have
increased attempts by the Assad regime the

00:55:21
Russians in particular with Iranian support
to take certain road arteries and rail

00:55:26
arteries throughout that province and Syria's
suffering economically due in part to

00:55:31
the U.S. Sanctions and there's

00:55:32
a lot of pressure on the regime to deliver
so I think we're likely to see attempts

00:55:35
to carve out parts of lib but the capabilities
of the Assad regime to completely

00:55:41
take over adlib and to throw refugees and
insurgents and al Qaeda elements into

00:55:46
Turkey which is the big fear I think is
limited as of now if they decided to focus

00:55:50
on that area though they could burst that
pocket and that would then send them into

00:55:55
north into Turkey and presumably northward
into Europe and if you have that kind of

00:55:59
situation it's very difficult to tell

00:56:01
a refugee who deserves help from an insurgent
who does not and so that is the real

00:56:06
worry I think for Turkey but also for
European countries in the United States final

00:56:10
words on implications of all that we've
talked about for the future of Syria the

00:56:16
mistakes that were made. And the unfortunate
situation with the civilian and the

00:56:22
rebel opposition that they were so hammered
the very allies that we would need for

00:56:27
a democratic and stable Syria the problem
we have at the moment is all the

00:56:32
different powers that have intervened in
Syria want to have their way and to impose

00:56:35
their order but no one wants to pay for it
and pay for the country's reconstruction

00:56:39
and to put the pieces of the country
back together again the Russians and the

00:56:42
Iranians want the West in the United
States to pay for it the West the United

00:56:46
States look at the situation and say
well why would we pay you to rebuild

00:56:49
a country to which people do not feel
safe to return the problem is that if we

00:56:53
don't do it and we have to find allies who
can and allies that will pay and commit

00:56:57
forces and the U.S.

00:56:59
Government trying to do that at the moment
that is the way that you keep ISIS down

00:57:03
and deny these areas to the Assad regime
the Russians and the Iranians but the

00:57:06
problem is that requires committing political
capital and trying to convince allies

00:57:11
to make commitments inside of Syria that
they are unwilling to make because they

00:57:14
feel the US over the course of this conflict
from the beginning has not wanted to

00:57:19
do what was necessary to bring about

00:57:21
a peaceful and sustainable end the war
and I think until we overcome that and

00:57:26
assuage those fears we're going to have

00:57:27
a hard time cobbling together that kind
of alliance that will check the Iranians

00:57:31
and the Russians Andrew Tabler is

00:57:33
a fellow in the Program on Arab Politics
at the Washington Institute for Near East

00:57:37
Policy here in Washington Andrew thank
you for your tremendous insights on

00:57:41
developments in Syria my pleasure Press
Conference USA on The Voice of America was

00:57:46
produced in Washington thanks to Patrice
Martin for booking our guest our engineer

00:57:51
was John Long And joining me on the
program was vegan air so's she's

00:57:55
a video journalist in via ways Turkish
service I'm Carol Castiel join me again next

00:58:00
week for another press conference
USA on The Voice of America.

00:58:20
This is V.O.A.

00:58:21
News I'm Steve Miller Trilok in soldiers
raided in eastern neighborhood early

00:58:26
Saturday after

00:58:27
a gunfight between troops in suspects
linked to the Islamic state claimed Easters

00:58:31
suicide attacks killed at least
two militants and one civilian

00:58:36
a Sri Lankan military spokesman says
fifteen bodies including six children were

00:58:40
found in the house with

00:58:42
a gun battle took place raids and police
curfews shut down areas of eastern Sri

00:58:47
Lanka as Catholic leaders canceled Sunday
masses and definitely officials also

00:58:53
urged Muslims to stay home for prayers and
an extraordinary call by the clergy to

00:58:59
curtail worship as fears of more attacks
plague the island nation Japanese prime

00:59:05
minister Shinzo Abbay speaking
through a translator says U.S.

00:59:09
Levies on Japanese automobiles must be
addressed in trade talks Japan has put

00:59:16
North tires and American autos but in
contrast the United States time has put

00:59:22
a two point five per cent tire on the
Japanese all of us but in any case we would

00:59:28
like to proceed to how we keep pretty
Bush ation now that we're now having four

00:59:33
that's will see a mutually beneficial the
outcome for both of our countries U.S.

00:59:38
President Donald Trump says he believes

00:59:41
a deal can be reached quickly in front of
thousands of people in an Indianapolis

00:59:46
sports stadium President Trump signed

00:59:48
a document rejecting the United Nation's
armed trade treaty calling it another

00:59:52
threat to American sovereignty my
administration will never ratified the arms

00:59:59
trade treaty held. The treaty entered into
force and twenty fourteen administration

01:00:05
officials point out that seventeen of the
top twenty five exports of arms including

01:00:10
Russia and China have not signed
the document This is V.O.A.

01:00:16
News. You know Nations on Friday warned it
was expecting further destruction in the

01:00:23
most impoverished areas
Mozambique after was hit by

01:00:26
a cycle of Kenneth the most powerful
storm on record to strike the country

01:00:31
a spokesman for the U.N.

01:00:32
Humanitarian office Younes Laird with
maximum sustained winds reportedly reaching

01:00:38
speeds of two hundred twenty five kilometers
per hour and gusts that reach two

01:00:42
hundred seventy kilometers per hour the
storm ripped off roofs off some homes and

01:00:48
it continues to generate heavy rainfall
resulting in flooding as it moves across or

01:00:53
something. The disaster comes only six
weeks after Sykes when he died there was

01:00:58
they descend from Mozambique killing
more than six hundred people unleashing

01:01:02
a cholera epidemic wiping out crops
in the country spread baskets forcing

01:01:06
a million people to rely on food
assistance to survive and causing massive

01:01:10
destruction of homes schools and
infrastructure in one of the world's poorest

01:01:14
countries Cyclon Kenneth made landfall
on Thursday evening after killing.

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